Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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M3PIE
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Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Solar Cycle update
Solar Maximum might arrive a little sooner than expected.

Recent sunspot counts suggest that new Solar Cycle 25 is over-performing compared to official forecasts, and could peak in 2024 instead of 2025.

Get the full story @ Spaceweather.com.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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M-CLASS SOLAR FLARE:

Sunspot AR2816 erupted during the late hours of April 19th (2342 UT), producing a strong M1-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash: This is one of the strongest flares of young Solar Cycle 25. A pulse of X-rays and ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean: blackout map. Mariners and ham radio operators in the area might have noticed unusual propagation conditions at frequencies below 10 MHz.

There is a chance that the explosion also hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. If so, it would probably arrive on April 22-23. The jury's still out, though. We need to wait for more data from SOHO coronagraphs to confirm the CME. Stay tuned
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Solar Flare and Radio Blackout
In a sign of increasing solar activity, the sun just produced an M-class solar flare--one of the strongest flares of new Solar Cycle 25.

A pulse of X-rays and UV radiation caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean, and the explosion also hurled a CME into space.

Get the full story @ Spaceweather.com.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Geomagnetic storm warning
A CME is heading for Earth and it could spark a geomagnetic storm when it arrives on April 25th.

NOAA forecasters say moderately strong G2-class storms are possible, which means auroras could dip into northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington.

Full story and updates @ Spaceweather.com.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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A cluster of sunspots are facing Earth on Monday. Both AR 2820 and 2821 continued to show signs of development during the past 12 hours and are considered a threat for minor C-Class solar flares.

Geomagnetic activity again decreased to lower levels following another brief period of minor (G1) storming early Monday. The solar wind stream remains near 500 km/s. A gradual decrease in speed is expected over the next few days before another coronal hole begins to face Earth later this week.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Frank Donovan, W3LPL is one of the top contesters in the USA and is a key forecaster of upcoming conditions on the HF amateur radio bands.

In a recent forecast (April 2021), he made a forecast about how good upcoming Solar Cycle 25 would be based on the Solar Flux numbers at the end of December 2021. I have put together a graphic which shows this above. The starting point for April 2021 is a solar flux index of 77 which is roughly the average for the month.

W3LPL wrote... “If the SFI persists below 90 through December 2021, then propagation should improve gradually until a solar maximum weaker than Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.

If the SFI persists above 110 through December 2021, then propagation should improve rapidly until a solar maximum similar to Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.

“If the SFI persists above 125 through December 2021, then propagation is likely to improve more rapidly until a solar maximum stronger than Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.”

(SFI = Solar Flux Index)

As with everything on the sun, there is always an amount of uncertainty in solar forecasts but it will be interesting to revisit this at the end of the year and see where we're at.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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The Sun just hit Earth with a radio burst
New sunspot AR2822 appeared today and promptly exploded, producing one of the strongest flares of young Solar Cycle 25.

The M3.9-class explosion hurled a bright CME into space and hit Earth with a shortwave radio burst.

Listen to the static and find out what comes next @ Spaceweather.com.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Solar flare frenzy and CME
On Saturday, the sun produced a sequence of solar flares unlike anything we've seen in years.

Earth-orbiting satellites detected a dozen explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2824.
One of them emitted a radio burst so strong, it drowned out static from lightning storms on Earth and was recorded at midnight by listening stations in the Arctic.

NOAA forecast models suggest that a CME might hit Earth's magnetic field on May 26th.

Full story @ Spaceweather.com.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Noctilucent clouds are back (earlier than expected)
High above the Arctic Circle, something unusual is happening.

Summertime noctilucent clouds (NLCs) have formed ahead of schedule, surprising sky watchers in Europe with sightings at latitudes as low as 50 degrees.

What's going on up there? Find out @ Spaceweather.com.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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First X-flare in 4 years
A new sunspot emerged during the early hours of July 3rd and promptly exploded, producing the first X-class solar flare since Sept. 2017.

X-flares are the most powerful kind, and this one caused a strong shortwave radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.

Updates to this developing story will be posted throughout the weekend @ Spaceweather.com.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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noticed something odd yesterday afternoon when all the HF bands went dead.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Farside explosion touches Earth
Something just exploded on the farside of the sun. The blast was so potent, it peppered Earth with energetic particles even though the body of the sun was blocking the blast site.

This is the latest sign of increasing activity by young Solar Cycle 25.

Full story @ Spaceweather.com.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Revised prediction for solarcycle 25
A revised prediction from the NASA High Altitude Observatory based at the University Of Colorado.

NASA Heliophysicists have released a revised prediction for Solar Cycle 25.
The report generated by Ricky Egeland a Solar Physicist working in the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group now calls for the peak of Solar Cycle 25 to top out at a value of 195 ± 17 based upon the new scale for calculating Smoothed Sun Spot Number. For reference Solar Cycle 21 peaked at an SSN 233 (new scale) while Solarcycle 23 peaked at an SSN of 180 (new scale). If this predictions holds up Ham Radio will see Excellent Worldwide F Layer Conditions on 10 Meters for several years around Solar Max. 6 Meters conditions should be good in the Equinox Periods before and after Solar Max with consistent openings on Medium Haul Polar Routes. 6 Meter routes traversing the equator should experience consistent openings ± 9 months from Solar Max.

Ricky Egeland is a particpating member in the group headed up by Scott McIntosh and Bob Leamon that published a paper 9 months ago outlining the existance magnetic bands within the Sun that govern the Sunspot and Hale Cycles. At the time of its publishing the paper went on to predict the peak of Solar Cycle 25 could be as high Solarcycle 21. Today's released is a revised prediction based upon data observed since the original paper was published. To be sure we are still in early days.

The Solar Rotation Cycle as marked by Sunspot Activity was established on April 19, 2021 so we are only 90 Days into actually observing Cycle 25 Activity. It is now agreed the dramactic run-up in Sunspot Activity we experienced late Last Fall while tied to Cycle 25 was an outlier. When asked directly about whether they can declare if the Terminator Event they wrote about in the Fall 2020 Paper has occurred Scott McIntosh stated "We can't be sure just yet but we are very very close". It also should be noted that while it has been over a year since the sun produced a Cycle 24 Region with a Sunspot worthy of a NASA Classification the Sun has been steadily producing Spotless SC 24 Active Regions the last of which formed right on the Solar Equator at N00-W54 on July 24,2021 as recorded by Jan Alvestad's Solar Terrestial Activity Report Website. These Active Regions being part of a Solarcycle in its final stages of existence produce no spots and only last for a few hours before they dissipate away. The previous SC24 Active Region formed on June 28, 2021. Once the SC24 active regions cease forming Solar Cycle 25 will take off in earnest.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Solar maximum might come early
New sunspot data show that Solar Cycle 25 is heating up faster than expected.

In fact, Solar Max could arrive in 2024 instead of 2025 as originally forecast.

See the data and learn more @ Spaceweather.com.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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The Perseid meteor shower has begun
Earth is entering a stream of debris from giant comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual Perseid meteor shower.

Although it doesn't peak until mid-next week, the shower is already active. Last night alone, NASA cameras detected more than a dozen fireballs over the USA.

More information and observing tips @ Spaceweather.com.
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