Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

[M3PIE]

Solar Cycle update
Solar Maximum might arrive a little sooner than expected.

Recent sunspot counts suggest that new Solar Cycle 25 is over-performing compared to official forecasts, and could peak in 2024 instead of 2025.

Get the full story @ Spaceweather.com.

[MrWeetabix]

Fingers crossed for some great prop in the coming years then!!

[Alan Pilot]

Mark
Why is your call dormant ?? 2003

[The Collector]

These experts can't make their minds up:


https://youtu.be/p8la3P6mtAA

[bigpimp347]

Erm i thought the peak was 2024 any way..
last peak was 2013, add 11, 2024...
still be peaked in 2025.....
so that's right to me.

[M3PIE]

Solar Flare and Radio Blackout
In a sign of increasing solar activity, the sun just produced an M-class solar flare--one of the strongest flares of new Solar Cycle 25.

A pulse of X-rays and UV radiation caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean, and the explosion also hurled a CME into space.

Get the full story @ Spaceweather.com.

[M3PIE]

Geomagnetic storm warning
A CME is heading for Earth and it could spark a geomagnetic storm when it arrives on April 25th.

NOAA forecasters say moderately strong G2-class storms are possible, which means auroras could dip into northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington.

Full story and updates @ Spaceweather.com.

[M3PIE]

Frank Donovan, W3LPL is one of the top contesters in the USA and is a key forecaster of upcoming conditions on the HF amateur radio bands.

In a recent forecast (April 2021), he made a forecast about how good upcoming Solar Cycle 25 would be based on the Solar Flux numbers at the end of December 2021. I have put together a graphic which shows this above. The starting point for April 2021 is a solar flux index of 77 which is roughly the average for the month.

W3LPL wrote... “If the SFI persists below 90 through December 2021, then propagation should improve gradually until a solar maximum weaker than Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.

If the SFI persists above 110 through December 2021, then propagation should improve rapidly until a solar maximum similar to Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.

“If the SFI persists above 125 through December 2021, then propagation is likely to improve more rapidly until a solar maximum stronger than Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.”

(SFI = Solar Flux Index)

As with everything on the sun, there is always an amount of uncertainty in solar forecasts but it will be interesting to revisit this at the end of the year and see where we're at.

W3LPL-Solar-Cycle-24-prediction-Apr-2021.jpg

[Skip searcher74]

Might Be lucky to get some skip from
The states towards the fall
Autumn would be nice to speak Across the water Again

[M3PIE]

The Sun just hit Earth with a radio burst
New sunspot AR2822 appeared today and promptly exploded, producing one of the strongest flares of young Solar Cycle 25.

The M3.9-class explosion hurled a bright CME into space and hit Earth with a shortwave radio burst.

Listen to the static and find out what comes next @ Spaceweather.com.

[deadite66]

Good propagation atm, thought not using the best aerial for this, via amplified loop + sdrplay rsp2

[astradyne]

It must have been good. I worked County Mayo QRP on a Ham International Multimode 2 late morning.

[M3PIE]

Solar flare frenzy and CME
On Saturday, the sun produced a sequence of solar flares unlike anything we've seen in years.

Earth-orbiting satellites detected a dozen explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2824.
One of them emitted a radio burst so strong, it drowned out static from lightning storms on Earth and was recorded at midnight by listening stations in the Arctic.

NOAA forecast models suggest that a CME might hit Earth's magnetic field on May 26th.

Full story @ Spaceweather.com.